United States GDP growth rate
The average GDP growth rate from 1948u20132017 is 3.
20%, with a high of 13.
40 in the 4th quarter of 1950 and a low of -4.
10 in the 2nd quarter of 2009.
The consumer price index increased an average of 3.
65 from 1956u20132016, but this should be broken down into 2 periods: 1956u20131985 CPI increased 4.
72/year 1986u20132016 CPI increased 2.
U.S. economic growth 2022
Itu2019s a Stretch Goal, * From IMF data, Indiau2019s GDP in 2018 was $2.
7 trillionn * IMF forecast for Indiau2019s GDP in 2024 is $4.
7 trillionn,Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) database [ https://www.
aspx ], * Below is the graphical representation of the same data as above from IMF, which puts 2024 forecast at $4.
7 trillionn,Source: Statista [ https://www.
com/statistics/263771/gross-domestic-product-gdp-in-india/ ], * These estimates are in-line with Morgan Stanley which forecasts Indiau2019s GDP to touch $5 trillion by 2025n,Source: The Hindu Business Line [ https://www.
ece ], * I took the IMF data and calculated the INR / USD currency exchange rates assumed by IMF in the above estimatesn,Cells in green contain values taken from IMF forecast.
Cells in White are calculated values.
,Hence, the IMF data assumes that if u2013, * nominal GDP grows at about 11.
8% per yearn * and inflation hovers at around 4% to 4.
2% per year (hence real GDP growth = 7.
6% to 7.
8% per year)n * and INR depreciates at no more than 2% per year against USD (INR/USD exchange rate in 2024 is less than 79)n,then Indiau2019s nominal GDP would be approximately $4.
7 trillion in 2024,Based on the above -, * If inflation is higher than 4% or Rupee stays stronger against USD then India could touch more than $4.
7 trillion by 2024n * The converse is obviously true too.
Lower inflation or higher Rupee depreciation could bring down the 2024 nominal GDP to less than the estimated $4.
7 trillion value.
n,Global Headwinds:,Unfortunately, currently the global economy is going through a slowdown which is reflected in all major economies of the world.
,As of 2019,, * USA is facing a slowdown n * China Industrial Output is at 17.
5 years low n * Germany is facing a recession (not a slowdown of growth, but CONTRACTION of economy) n * France growth is declining across industries n,Source: NPR [ https://www.
org/2019/07/26/745547982/the-u-s-economy-is-slowing-as-trade-war-takes-a-toll?t=1568973853961 ], Reuters [ https://www.
com/article/us-china-economy-activity-idUSKBN1W102H ], Euro News [ https://www.
com/2019/08/14/the-brief-europe-s-engine-stalling-as-germany-s-economy-shrinks ], Express [ https://www.
uk/news/world/1159677/eurozone-news-latest-eu-france-macron-tax-cuts-italy-stagnation-economy ], * Britain investments are down to 17 years low n * Japan factory output has slumped n * Australia GDP growth is at 20 years low n * Singapore is facing a recess.
US GDP chart
PWC forecasts made in 2015 shows the following:,According to the above table, in 2050 Chinau2019s GDP PPP would be about 145% of US GDP PPP.
,PWC forecasts made in 2017 shows the following:,According to the above chart, Chinau2019s GDP PPP for 2050 would be 170% of US GDP PPP.
,From 145% in the 2015 forecast, it has increased to 170% in the 2017 forecast.
,Perhaps future forecasts will show an even bigger difference? Would that not cause the US to be concerned? Bear in mind that the US wants to remain the number one superpower of the world.
,As long as China is focussed on the eradication of poverty throughout all provinces, as they are doing now, while finding ways to increase trade with other countries (this is what the BRI is really about), they should continue to have a good growth rate.
U.S. GDP (Q2 2022)
The US has the largest economy in the world and in a global economy a US recession will definitely affect other countries either directly or indirectly.
The biggest impact will be a dramatic drop off in exports to the US including things like oil, automobiles, etc.
A recession in the United States dramatically increases the chance of a global recession.
u.s. gdp growth by quarter
It depends on if youu2019re talking about quarterly GDP growth or annual GDP growth.
,The news this week that GDP growth was 4.
1% was an example of quarterly GDP growth; GDP growth over the previous three months, the second quarter of 2018 (Q2).
,During Obamau2019s presidency, quarterly GDP growth exceeded 3% several times, and exceeded the 4.
1% growth rate we saw in Q2 of 2018 four times.
,But since the Great Recession, growth has been very erratic, with quarters of very strong growth followed by relatively weak growth.
As a result, there has not been a period of annual GDP growth of 3% or greater since before the Great Recession began.
For example, in 2014, GDP growth was 4.
6% in the second quarter and 5.
1% in the third quarter, but weak growth in the first and fourth quarters dragged the annual number under 3%.
,It is worth noting that up to this point, the economy under Trump looks very similar; annual growth in 2017 was under 3%, (it was 2.
3%) and the first quarter of 2018 saw growth of 2.
6% before jumping up to 4.
1% in Q2.
We saw these types of jumps several times in the Obama presidency; the economyu2019s problem has not been that it has not endured periods of strong growth, but that rapid growth has not been sustainable.
It remains to be seen whether we are now witnessing a change; we will see over the next two quarters whether the faster growth of 2018 Q2 is going to be sustained or if weu2019re going to return to the slower rates of 2017 Q4 (2.
9%) and 2018 Q1 (2.
: real GDP growth by quarter 2011-2018 | StatistaU.
- GDP growth by year 1990-2017 | StatistaTrump has not yet achieved annual GDP growth of 3%, though this is only his second year in office.
Obama did not achieve annual growth of 3% during his presidency.
Quarterly GDP growth in the Obama presidency exceeded 3% a number of times; Q4 of 2009 saw GDP growth of 4.
6% in Q4 of 2011; 3.
1% in Q3 of 2013; 4% in Q4 of 2013; 4.
6% in Q2 of 2014; 5.
1% in Q3 of 2013; and 3.
2% in Q1 of 2015.
Quarterly GDP since Trump took office has been (Q1 2017, during which he took office) 1.
2%, (Q2 2017) 3.
1%, (Q3 2017) 3.
2%, (Q4 2017) 2.
9%, (Q1 2018) 2.
6%, (Q2 2018) 4.
,There is not a lot of statistical evidence u2014 so far u2014 that the economy is performing very differently under Trump than it had been under Obama.
That could easily change over the next two quarters, during which Trumpu2019s most significant economic policies u2014 his tariffs and his corporate tax cut u2014 will have had enough time to have clear, measurable effects on the economy.
Will that get us to over 3% growth for the year? Who knows? Or will we continue the up-and-down growth weu2019ve been seeing for years? Weu2019ll have to wait till the annual numbers come out next year to answer that question.
,So it is true Obama never saw annual GDP growth over 3% (and so far, neither has Trump, though itu2019s early).
It is false that quarterly growth in Q2 2018 was higher than any comparable period under Obama.
u.s. gdp growth by year since 1900
It is not the best ever.
The best ever is the GDP growth during the period when we had not a lot of military or government expense, and we funded every service by tariff and fees.
Like in 1880 or 1900 to 1920.
GDP growth of 9% some years.
It was truly a golden age.
,TRUMP means modern.
And its not even the best by modern measures.
That is obvious by checking this table: The Strange Ups and Downs of the U.
Economy Since 1929You can always put a finger on an excuse it seems.
And its always 20-20 hindsight.
But pay not one bit of attention to Trump; its Barnum at the best.
,The economy is not a presidential plaything.
It is millions upon millions of independent actors, and the President is a surfer on the wave they create.
He can choose how to surf his board.
He cannot create the wave.
U.S. GDP forecast
America printed an absurd amount of money in the last 6 months.
Also, it will rebound from the 4% contraction of the last year.